美國舊金山加州大學(xué)Tice等報告，在乳腺癌預(yù)測模型中加入乳腺密度，能評估浸潤性乳腺癌5年危險,，但鑒別哪些女性將罹患乳腺癌時，該模型僅有中等準(zhǔn)確性,。相關(guān)論文發(fā)表在《內(nèi)科學(xué)文獻》（Annals of Internal Medicine）上,。
該模型結(jié)合了乳腺密度和某些臨床因素(如乳腺癌家族史、既往乳腺活檢史),。高乳腺密度是乳腺癌預(yù)測因素,，可通過常規(guī)乳腺X線攝影檢查獲得。為了制定和驗證該模型,，研究者分析了1095484例乳腺X線攝影篩查病例資料,。所有參加篩查的女性繼往均未被診斷為乳腺癌。
在5.3年隨訪期間,，14766名女性發(fā)生浸潤性乳腺癌,。乳腺密度模型在所有女性(期望/實測比為1.03)和各種族、民族亞群中均能較好地標(biāo)定乳腺癌危險,。年齡在65歲以下,、無乳腺癌家族史、低乳腺密度的女性,，5年乳腺癌危險低于1.67%,。但是，該模型鑒別可能和不會罹患乳腺癌者僅具有中等準(zhǔn)確性(一致性指數(shù)為0.66),。若要將該模型用于臨床,，尚須在其他群體中進一步評價其準(zhǔn)確性。（來源：中國醫(yī)學(xué)論壇報 曉新）
生物谷推薦原始出處：
（Annals of Internal Medicine）,，4 March 2008 | Volume 148 Issue 5 | Pages 337-347,，Jeffrey A. Tice, Karla Kerlikowske
Using Clinical Factors and Mammographic Breast Density to Estimate Breast Cancer Risk: Development and Validation of a New Predictive Model
Jeffrey A. Tice, MD; Steven R. Cummings, MD; Rebecca Smith-Bindman, MD; Laura Ichikawa, MS; William E. Barlow, PhD; and Karla Kerlikowske, MD
Background: Current models for assessing breast cancer risk are complex and do not include breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer that is routinely reported with mammography.
Objective: To develop and validate an easy-to-use breast cancer risk prediction model that includes breast density.
Design: Empirical model based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence, and relative hazards from a prospective cohort.
Setting: Screening mammography sites participating in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium.
Patients: 1 095 484 women undergoing mammography who had no previous diagnosis of breast cancer.
Measurements: Self-reported age, race or ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, and history of breast biopsy. Community radiologists rated breast density by using 4 Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories.
Results: During 5.3 years of follow-up, invasive breast cancer was diagnosed in 14 766 women. The breast density model was well calibrated overall (expected–observed ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.06]) and in racial and ethnic subgroups. It had modest discriminatory accuracy (concordance index, 0.66 [CI, 0.65 to 0.67]). Women with low-density mammograms had 5-year risks less than 1.67% unless they had a family history of breast cancer and were older than age 65 years.
