來自德國,、英國,、西班牙、意大利和匈牙利的研究人員開發(fā)了一種評估轉基因玉米對非靶向節(jié)肢動物影響的數(shù)學模型,。研究人員選擇了兩種被保護的蝴蝶品種(Inachis io和Vanessa atalanta)和鉆石背蛾(Plutella xylostella)進行評估,。為了盡可能的提高模型的可靠性,計算過程中選擇了歐洲11個種植轉基因玉米Mon810的代表性區(qū)域。模型計算顯示種植轉基因玉米對蝴蝶和蛾的影響非常小,。在所有地區(qū)中孔雀蝶和上將蝶的最大死亡率小于1/1572,鉆石背蛾的最大死亡率為1/392,。兩種蝴蝶品種的平均死亡率為1/5000,鉆石背蛾的平均死亡率為1/4367。
這項研究發(fā)表于Proceedings of the Royal Society B,作者在文章中寫道:“我們的結果表明以往的評估過于謹慎,死亡率和亞致死率僅是原有值的1/4,。”（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推薦原始出處：
Proc. R. Soc. B January 6, 2010, doi: 10.1098/rspb.2009.2091
A mathematical model of exposure of non-target Lepidoptera to Bt-maize pollen expressing Cry1Ab within Europe
J. N. Perry1,*, Y. Devos2, S. Arpaia3, D. Bartsch4, A. Gathmann4, R. S. Hails5, J. Kiss6, K. Lheureux2, B. Manachini7, S. Mestdagh2, G. Neemann8, F. Ortego9, J. Schiemann10 and J. B. Sweet11
1Oaklands Barn, Lug's Lane, Broome, Norfolk NR35 2HT, UK
2European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), GMO Unit, Largo Natale Palli 5/A, 43121 Parma, Italy
3National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Environment (ENEA), Research Centre Trisaia, 75026 Rotondella, Italy
4Bundesamt für Verbraucherschutz und Lebensmittelsicherheit (BVL), Federal Office of Consumer Protection and Food Safety, Mauerstrasse 39-42, 10117 Berlin , Germany
5Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Mansfield Road, Oxford OX1 3SR, UK
6Plant Protection Institute, Szent István University, Pater K. 1, 2100 G?d?ll?, Hungary
7Animal Biology Department, University of Palermo, Via Archirafi, 18, 90123 Palermo, Italy
8Büro für Landschafts?kologie und Umweltstudien, Wiesenstra?e 8, 37073 G?ttingen, Germany
9Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas (CSIC), Departamento de Biología de Plantas, Laboratorio Interacción Planta-Insecto, C/Ramiro de Maeztu 9, 28040 Madrid , Spain
10Julius Kühn Institute, Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants (JKI), Institute for Biosafety of Genetically Modified Plants, Erwin-Baur-Strasse 27, 06484 Quedlinburg, Germany
11Sweet Environmental Consultants, 6 The Green, Willingham, Cambridge CB24 5JA, UK
Genetically modified (GM) maize MON810 expresses a Cry1Ab insecticidal protein, derived from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), toxic to lepidopteran target pests such as Ostrinia nubilalis. An environmental risk to non-target Lepidoptera from this GM crop is exposure to harmful amounts of Bt-containing pollen deposited on host plants in or near MON810 fields. An 11-parameter mathematical model analysed exposure of larvae of three non-target species: the butterflies Inachis io (L.), Vanessa atalanta (L.) and moth Plutella xylostella (L.), in 11 representative maize cultivation regions in four European countries. A mortality–dose relationship was integrated with a dose–distance relationship to estimate mortality both within the maize MON810 crop and within the field margin at varying distances from the crop edge. Mortality estimates were adjusted to allow for physical effects; the lack of temporal coincidence between the susceptible larval stage concerned and the period over which maize MON810 pollen is shed; and seven further parameters concerned with maize agronomy and host-plant ecology. Sublethal effects were estimated and allowance made for aggregated pollen deposition. Estimated environmental impact was low: in all regions, the calculated mortality rate for worst-case scenarios was less than one individual in every 1572 for the butterflies and one in 392 for the moth.
