美國研究人員日前公布報(bào)告稱,，全球變暖將影響美國的葡萄種植業(yè)，加利福尼亞州頗富盛名的納帕山谷等地將難以釀造出優(yōu)質(zhì)葡萄酒,。
斯坦福大學(xué)研究人員領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的團(tuán)隊(duì)分析了美國西部4個(gè)優(yōu)質(zhì)葡萄酒產(chǎn)地：加州圣巴巴拉縣,、納帕山谷,、俄勒岡州威拉米特河谷及華盛頓州哥倫比亞山谷。研究人員利用氣候模型以及歷史氣象數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測了全球變暖如何影響這些地區(qū)的葡萄生產(chǎn),。
研究人員假定,，至2040年，大氣中的溫室氣體濃度比現(xiàn)在升高23%,。參與研究的斯坦福大學(xué)伍茲環(huán)境研究所助理教授諾亞·迪芬博表示,，這已是保守估計(jì)，相當(dāng)于大氣平均溫度升高1攝氏度,。
這項(xiàng)研究成果已發(fā)表在英國《環(huán)境研究快報(bào)》雜志網(wǎng)絡(luò)版上,。（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推薦原文出處：
Environmental Research Letters doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024024
Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United States
Noah S Diffenbaugh, Michael A White, Gregory V Jones and Moetasim Ashfaq
Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an 'adaptation wedge' relative to the loss that would occur without that adaptation activity. We use premium winegrape suitability in the western United States as an illustrative case study, focusing on the near-term period that covers the years 2000–39. We find that the projected warming over this period results in the loss of suitable winegrape area throughout much of California, including most counties in the high-value North Coast and Central Coast regions. However, in quantifying adaptation wedges for individual high-value counties, we find that a large adaptation wedge can be captured by increasing the severe heat tolerance, including elimination of the 50% loss projected by the end of the 2030–9 period in the North Coast region, and reduction of the projected loss in the Central Coast region from 30% to less than 15%. Increased severe heat tolerance can capture an even larger adaptation wedge in the Pacific Northwest, including conversion of a projected loss of more than 30% in the Columbia Valley region of Washington to a projected gain of more than 150%. We also find that warming projected over the near-term decades has the potential to alter the quality of winegrapes produced in the western US, and we discuss potential actions that could create adaptation wedges given these potential changes in quality. While the present effort represents an initial exploration of one aspect of one industry, the climate adaptation wedge framework could be used to quantitatively evaluate the opportunities and limits of climate adaptation within and across a broad range of natural and human systems.
