在當(dāng)今全球范圍環(huán)境變化的形勢(shì)下，瀕危野生動(dòng)物種群能否持續(xù)生存是保護(hù)生物學(xué)的關(guān)鍵問題之一,。普氏原羚是全球最瀕危的野生動(dòng)物之一,。近100多年來，由于受人為獵殺,、棲息地破碎化和喪失等因素的影響,，普氏原羚已知?dú)埩舴N群僅分布在環(huán)青海湖地區(qū)，且種群數(shù)量極為有限,。
中國(guó)科學(xué)院成都生物研究所系統(tǒng)進(jìn)化與保育學(xué)科組胡軍華博士與中國(guó)科學(xué)院動(dòng)物研究所蔣志剛研究員,、英國(guó)曼徹斯特城市大學(xué)David P. Mallon教授等合作，通過模擬普氏原羚種群動(dòng)態(tài)發(fā)現(xiàn),，如果其生存現(xiàn)狀得不到有效的改善,，部分亞種群會(huì)面臨很大的滅絕風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。他們建議有效控制普氏原羚分布區(qū)內(nèi)的人類活動(dòng),，增加其棲息地連接度,，并建立有效的人工繁育種群等,。
該研究結(jié)果近期發(fā)表于國(guó)際保護(hù)生物學(xué)期刊Biological Conservation。
此項(xiàng)研究受國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金,、中國(guó)科學(xué)院知識(shí)創(chuàng)新工程項(xiàng)目等資助,。（生物谷Bioon.com）
doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2013.06.011
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Metapopulation viability of a globally endangered gazelle on the Northeast Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
Junhua Hua, b, Zhigang Jiangb, , , David P. Mallonc, d
Conservationists are far from able to assist all species threatened by extinction. Population Viability Analysis (PVA) is often used to guide decisions about the management of threatened species. Using the updated Vortex package, we carried out a PVA for Przewalski’s gazelle Procapra przewalskii, a globally endangered gazelle and conservation focus on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, based on the extensive field surveys between 1994 and 2008 on the nine existing subpopulations (i.e., Yuanzhe, Hudong, Ketu, Shadao, Ganzihe, Haergai, Bird Island, Tianjun and Gonghe). Population size varied largely across subpopulations during the simulation. The nine subpopulations faced two distinct fates within the next 200 years: two will likely survive while the other seven appeared likely to go extinct. The average probability of extinction (PE) of subpopulations was 97.1%, with the mean time to extinction 66.7 years. The metapopulation will most likely decrease in size, but could persist. The number of offspring per adult female per year (OFY), the sex ratio, and the mortality of young females will seemingly play important roles in determining persistence, as will carrying capacity and inbreeding depression to be a lesser degree. The projected size and extinction rates for the subpopulations responded differently to variation in population parameters, with the highest sensitivity in Haergai. OFY was the most important demographic parameter for explaining variation in population size. These findings advance our understanding of how to mitigate extinction risks for the endangered Przewalski’s gazelle and provide useful insights for its conservation that may also be applicable to other large ungulates.
