在2012年12月期的《腫瘤學(xué)年鑒》(Annals of Oncology)雜志上,，發(fā)表了我國(guó)汕頭大學(xué)醫(yī)學(xué)院李克教授的一篇研究報(bào)告，該研究目的為,，對(duì)中國(guó)癌癥死亡率的長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行綜合性的概覽,。中國(guó)癌癥死亡病例總數(shù)占世界的近四分之一，因此對(duì)全球的癌癥趨勢(shì)和負(fù)擔(dān)具有重要影響,。
研究人員通過(guò)Joinpoint分析方法,，考察了中國(guó)的癌癥變化趨勢(shì)，并通過(guò)廣義加性模型,，對(duì)1987年至2009年期間,，出生隊(duì)列對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的影響進(jìn)行了研究。
研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn),，中國(guó)城市地區(qū)所有癌癥種類的死亡率均呈穩(wěn)定降低趨勢(shì),，而農(nóng)村地區(qū)則未表現(xiàn)出該趨勢(shì)。此外觀察發(fā)現(xiàn),，胃,、食管、鼻咽及宮頸部位腫瘤死亡率均出現(xiàn)下降,，而肺癌及女性乳腺癌死亡率則呈上升趨勢(shì),。白血病死亡率相對(duì)穩(wěn)定，而農(nóng)村地區(qū)與城市地區(qū)間在肝癌,、結(jié)直腸癌及膀胱癌方面,，存在不同的死亡率變化趨勢(shì)。代際風(fēng)險(xiǎn)峰值出現(xiàn)在1925-1930年出生的隊(duì)列,，其后出生的連續(xù)隊(duì)列在除白血病外的多數(shù)癌癥種類上均呈下降趨勢(shì),，而其中最近的幾個(gè)隊(duì)列相對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)則呈上升趨勢(shì)。
李教授等人認(rèn)為,，該研究中所觀察到的趨勢(shì)基本反映了在過(guò)去20年間,，中國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展及生活方式方面的巨大變化，此外,，肺癌及女性乳腺癌的死亡率仍是政府部門在公共衛(wèi)生方面的主要優(yōu)先事項(xiàng),。（生物谷Bioon.com）
doi:10.1093/annonc/mds069
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Trends in cancer mortality in China: an update
Guo P Huang ZL Yu P Li K
Cancer deaths of China with the world population nearly a quarter will have a severe impact on global cancer trend and burden. The study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of long-term trends in cancer mortality in China. We used joinpoint analysis to detect changes in trends and generalized additive models to study birth cohort effect of risk factors between 1987 and 2009. Mortality of all cancers declined steadily in urban areas, but not in rural areas. Decreasing mortality from cancers of the stomach, esophagus, nasopharynx, and cervix uteri was observed, while lung and female breast cancer mortality increased. Mortality from leukemia remained relatively stable, and cancer of liver, colorectal, and bladder had different trends between the rural and urban areas. Generational risks peaked in the cohorts born around 1925-1930 and tended to decline in successive cohorts for most cancers except for leukemia, whose relative risks were rising in the very recent cohorts. The observed trends primarily reflect dramatic changes in socioeconomic development and lifestyle in China over the past two decades, and mortality from cancers of lung and female breast still represents a major public health priority for the government.
