發(fā)生氣候變化時,，物種若要繼續(xù)呆在具有相同平均溫度的一個地區(qū),，它們就必須遷移：因此，它們的存活機(jī)會取決于它們跟氣候遷移保持同步的能力以及溫度和其他氣候因素變化的程度,。
為了在具體環(huán)境中來說明物種所承受的這種壓力,，研究人員建立了設(shè)計用來對下一世紀(jì)氣候變化進(jìn)行量化的一個新指數(shù)。該指數(shù)值給出了維持溫度不變所需的沿地球表面遷移的局部速度,，是從以距離和時間為刻度的溫度梯度（單位分別為oC per km和oC per year）得出的,。
這個指數(shù)對地形在緩沖氣候變化對植物和動物影響方面所起作用做出了定量描述：在政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）的A1B排放情景中，該指數(shù)的全球平均值為0.42 公里/年,，而其對山地森林生物群落和淹沒草地兩種環(huán)境的極端值分別為0.08 和1.26公里/年,。結(jié)果表明，氣候變化速度相對于物種遷移速度和受保護(hù)生境大小來說是比較大的,。
這些數(shù)據(jù)還表明,，在一些生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中，通過生境走廊或新的保護(hù)區(qū)來幫助物種更快遷移,，對保護(hù)工作可能會是一個重要貢獻(xiàn),。（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推薦原始出處：
Nature 462, 1052-1055 (24 December 2009) | doi:10.1038/nature08649
The velocity of climate change
Scott R. Loarie1, Philip B. Duffy1,2, Healy Hamilton3, Gregory P. Asner1, Christopher B. Field1 & David D. Ackerly4
1 Carnegie Institution for Science, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford, California 94305, USA
2 Climate Central, Inc., Palo Alto, California 94301, USA
3 Center for Applied Biodiversity Informatics, California Academy of Sciences, San Francisco, California 94118, USA
4 Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
5 Correspondence to: Scott R. Loarie1 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to S.R.L.
The ranges of plants and animals are moving in response to recent changes in climate1. As temperatures rise, ecosystems with ‘nowhere to go’, such as mountains, are considered to be more threatened2, 3. However, species survival may depend as much on keeping pace with moving climates as the climate’s ultimate persistence4, 5. Here we present a new index of the velocity of temperature change (km yr-1), derived from spatial gradients (°C km-1) and multimodel ensemble forecasts of rates of temperature increase (°C?yr-1) in the twenty-first century. This index represents the instantaneous local velocity along Earth’s surface needed to maintain constant temperatures, and has a global mean of 0.42?km?yr-1 (A1B emission scenario). Owing to topographic effects, the velocity of temperature change is lowest in mountainous biomes such as tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08?km?yr-1), temperate coniferous forest, and montane grasslands. Velocities are highest in flooded grasslands (1.26?km?yr-1), mangroves and deserts. High velocities suggest that the climates of only 8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding 100?years. Small protected areas exacerbate the problem in Mediterranean-type and temperate coniferous forest biomes. Large protected areas may mitigate the problem in desert biomes. These results indicate management strategies for minimizing biodiversity loss from climate change. Montane landscapes may effectively shelter many species into the next century. Elsewhere, reduced emissions, a much expanded network of protected areas6, or efforts to increase species movement may be necessary7.
