科學(xué)家在《自然—氣候變化》上撰文稱,，在今后50年內(nèi)，野生伊比利山貓將因為預(yù)計的氣候變化而數(shù)量急劇下降并可能滅絕,。該研究認為,，目前的野生保護手段只是在推遲生物滅絕而已，應(yīng)該采用一個能在避免物種滅絕時將氣候變化的影響考慮在內(nèi)的措施項目,。
伊比利山貓（Lynx pardinus）是一種生活在歐洲南部地區(qū)的動物,，“多虧”人類對其主要食物來源——兔子的過度狩獵，伊比利山貓的數(shù)量急劇減少,。氣候變化更是進一步威脅到山貓的生存,，但在該山貓種類的拯救計劃中，有關(guān)氣候變化的預(yù)估影響一直被忽視,。
Miguel Araújo等人從氣候變化,、獵物可獲取性和管理干預(yù)三個方面研究伊比利山貓可能受到的綜合影響。他們發(fā)現(xiàn),，氣候變化會對伊比利山貓數(shù)量產(chǎn)生迅速,、嚴重的消極影響,，其程度遠大于由山貓自身的環(huán)境適應(yīng)能力和尋找那些食物來源豐富,、適合繁殖的氣候適宜地區(qū)的能力帶來的好處,。研究人員推測，盡管全球正在推動減輕溫室氣體排放,，但上述情況仍舊會發(fā)生,。他們認為重新仔細制定計劃，并將氣候變化影響,、獵物豐富度和棲息地連通性考慮在內(nèi)的話,，能夠避免山貓在本世紀滅絕的可能。
該項研究告訴了我們一點：為何在制定生物多樣性保護措施時,，獵物可獲得性,、氣候變化以及其相互影響是如此重要。（生物谷 Bioon.com）
生物谷推薦的英文摘要
Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/nclimate1954
Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate
D. A. Fordham,1 H. R. Akçakaya,2 B. W. Brook,1 A. Rodríguez,3 P. C. Alves,4, 5 E. Civantos,4, 6 M. Triviño,6, 7 M. J. Watts1, 8 & M. B. Araújo6, 9, 10
The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century and is now on the brink of extinction1. Climate change could further threaten the survival of the species2, but its forecast effects are being neglected in recovery plans3, 4. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk under climate change have so far mostly relied on inferences from correlative projections of species’ habitat shifts5. Here we use ecological niche models coupled to metapopulation simulations with source–sink dynamics6, 7 to directly investigate the combined effects of climate change, prey availability and management intervention on the persistence of the Iberian lynx. Our approach is unique in that it explicitly models dynamic bi-trophic species interactions in a climate change setting. We show that anticipated climate change will rapidly and severely decrease lynx abundance and probably lead to its extinction in the wild within 50 years, even with strong global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In stark contrast, we also show that a carefully planned reintroduction programme, accounting for the effects of climate change, prey abundance and habitat connectivity, could avert extinction of the lynx this century. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, why considering prey availability, climate change and their interaction in models is important when designing policies to prevent future biodiversity loss.
