人們通常認為，經(jīng)濟越繁榮，老年人口死亡率越低,。但一份研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在發(fā)達國家,，老年人死亡率在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展較快時期反而升高,。
法新社10月7日報道，英國《流行病和公共衛(wèi)生雜志》刊登的一項研究結(jié)果顯示,，在一些發(fā)達國家,，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值每增長一個百分點，70至74歲男性人群死亡率升高0.36％,，同一年齡段女性人群死亡率升高0.18％,。
在40至45歲人群中,，男性和女性死亡率在經(jīng)濟增長情況下分別升高0.38％和0.16％。
研究人員分析19個發(fā)達國家1950年至2008年期間的人口死亡率和經(jīng)濟增長率后得出上述數(shù)據(jù),。這19個國家包括美國,、日本、澳大利亞,、新西蘭和多個歐洲國家,。
報告說：“研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，失業(yè)率升高或國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值下降與低死亡率相關(guān)聯(lián),。”
荷蘭萊頓生命力和老化學院研究人員赫伯特·羅爾登說,，這項研究結(jié)果“非常出人意料”，“我們還不清楚這種關(guān)聯(lián)的真正原因”,。
對年輕人而言,，經(jīng)濟繁榮時期死亡率高或許能夠歸因于工作壓力大和交通事故發(fā)生率高。但羅爾登認為,，這種解釋不適用于退休老人,。
一種未經(jīng)證實的猜測認為，經(jīng)濟繁榮時期年輕人可能因工作繁忙而無暇照顧老人,，這種社會結(jié)構(gòu)變化可能推升老年人死亡率,。另一種觀點認為，經(jīng)濟發(fā)展可能伴隨空氣污染等環(huán)境問題,，影響老年人健康。（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推薦的英文摘要
Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health doi:10.1136/jech-2013-202544
Old age mortality and macroeconomic cycles
Herbert J A Rolden1,， David van Bodegom1,，2， Wilbert B van den Hout2,， Rudi G J Westendorp1,，2
Background As mortality is more and more concentrated at old age， it becomes critical to identify the determinants of old age mortality. It has counter-intuitively been found that mortality rates at all ages are higher during short-term increases in economic growth. Work-stress is found to be a contributing factor to this association,， but cannot explain the association for the older,， retired population.
Methods Historical figures of gross domestic product (Angus Maddison) were compared with mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) of middle aged (40–44years) and older people (70–74years) in 19 developed countries for the period 1950–2008. Regressions were performed on the de-trended data， accounting for autocorrelation and aggregated using random effects models.
Results Most countries show pro-cyclical associations between the economy and mortality,， especially with regard to male mortality rates. On average,， for every 1% increase in gross domestic product， mortality increases with 0.36% for 70-year-old to 74-year-old men (p<0.001) and 0.38% for 40-year-old to 44-year-old men (p<0.001). The effect for women is 0.18% for 70-year-olds to 74-year-olds (p=0.012) and 0.15% for 40-year-olds to 44-year-olds (p=0.118).
Conclusions In developed countries,， mortality rates increase during upward cycles in the economy,， and decrease during downward cycles. This effect is similar for the older and middle-aged population. Traditional explanations as work-stress and traffic accidents cannot explain our findings. Lower levels of social support and informal care by the working population during good economic times can play an important role， but this remains to be formally investigated.
