生物谷報(bào)道：由于流感病毒的變異性快,，而且其傳播速度快,，造成的死亡率高，因此引起人們的關(guān)注。流感的大流行,，一般每一百年或幾百年流行一次,，一旦流行起來，全球大約20%的人均會(huì)患病,，死亡人數(shù)將超過數(shù)百萬人,，約2800萬人需要住院治療，如此估計(jì),，一旦流感真的發(fā)作,，我們有足夠的醫(yī)院去接待病人嗎？目前的疫苗有效嗎,？

本期Science發(fā)表一篇文章預(yù)測(cè)這一結(jié)果,，他通過分析HN1-10種流感毒株的可能發(fā)作情況，以供公共衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)參考,，一旦發(fā)作,，將采取合理的對(duì)策。而且人類需要加大投入研究和開發(fā)新的疫苗,，以針對(duì)性對(duì)付每一種可能的流感病毒株,。

以下是1918年大流感的發(fā)作情況

Projections of numbers of deaths during the next influenza pandemic for selected countries based on statistics from the 1918-1919 pandemic (4). 

下面是全球流感疫苗的分布情況，數(shù)據(jù)來源于WHO

Global distribution of influenza vaccine by WHO region. Data compiled by the Influenza Vaccine Supply International Task Force of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Associations; it covers >95% of the total annual worldwide distribution

參考文獻(xiàn)：

M. I. Meltzer, N. J. Cox, K. Fukuda, Emerg. Infect. Dis. 5, 659 (1999) [Medline] [Full text].
M. I. Meltzer, presentation at the WHO consultation on priority public health interventions before and during an influenza pandemic, Geneva, 16 to 18 March 2004; see www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/consultation/en/
Report of an informal WHO meeting on influenza pandemic vaccines, Geneva, Switzerland, 11 to 12 November 2004 (WHO/CDS/CSR/GIP/2004.3); see www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/ [Summary report].
N. P. A. S. Johnson, J. Mueller, Bull. Hist. Med. 76, 105 (2002) [Medline].
"Global distribution of influenza vaccines, 2000-2003," WHO Wkly Epidemiol Rec. 79 (40), 366 (2004); available at www.who.int/wer/2004/en/wer7940.pdf.
相關(guān)知識(shí)：

Influenza pandemics. NIAID's Focus on the Flu includes a section on pandemic influenza titled "Are we ready? Preparing for a pandemic." Pandemic Influenza is a resource page provided by the National Vaccine Program Office, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS); the draft of the Pandemic Influenza Response and Preparedness Plan is included. WHO CSR provides a resource page on pandemic preparedness; the 1999 guidelines titled "Influenza pandemic preparedness plan: The role of WHO" and the April 2004 report titled "WHO consultation on priority public health interventions before and during an influenza pandemic" are available. The Public Health Agency of Canada presents the Canadian pandemic influenza plan. The National Institute of General Medical Sciences issued a 15 November 2004 news release and research brief titled "Computer models to simulate hypothetical outbreak of avian flu." The 29 December 2001 issue of Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences was a special issue on the origin and control of pandemic influenza. A video titled "Pandemic influenza--A global threat" is available from the European Scientific Working Group on Influenza (ESWI).

Past pandemics. Kimball's Biology Pages include a section on the 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics. The National Vaccine Program Office offers a summary of pandemics and pandemic scares in the 20th century. Influenza 1918 is a presentation of PBS Online's The American Experience. R. Siegel, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Stanford University, makes available a student presentation by M. Billings about the influenza pandemic of 1918. Historical background information about pandemics is included in WHO's Influenza pandemic preparedness plan. The Spanish Influenza of 1918 is a resource page provided by S. Guðnadóttir. The 19 March 2004 issue of Science had an Enhanced Perspective by E. C. Holmes titled "1918 and all that."

Avian influenza. Dangers of "Bird Flu" is a presentation of the University of Wisconsin's Why Files. The Animal Production and Health Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) offers an Animal Health Special Report on Avian Influenza. The April 2004 issue of the Bulletin of the World Health Organization had an article by S. Lazzari and K. Stöhr titled "Avian influenza and influenza pandemics." The New York Times had a 30 September 2004 article by K. Bradsher and L. K. Altman titled "Experts confront hurdles in containing bird flu." MSNBC makes available a 13 December 2004 Newsweek International article by M. Hastings and F. Guterl titled "Bird-flu challenge." The 15 October 2004 issue of Science had a collection of News Focus articles on avian influenza including an article by M. Enserink titled "Girding for disaster: Looking the pandemic in the eye." The CDC's avian influenza resource page makes available a 7 December 2004 update titled "Avian influenza infection in humans." The University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy (CIPRAP) provides an overview of avian flu titled "Avian influenza (bird flu): Implications for human disease" and news coverage. WHO CSR's avian influenza resource page provides situation updates on avian influenza and reports of human cases.

Vaccines against pandemic influenza. Understanding Vaccines is an introduction (PDF format) from NIAID. An introduction to vaccine science is provided by the Sabin Vaccine Institute. The WHO influenza preparedness plan has a section on influenza vaccines. Presentations from a November 2003 workshop on human pandemic influenza vaccine are made available by the European Commission's Pharmaceuticals Unit. The 29 December 2001 issue of Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences had an article by J. M. Wood titled "Developing vaccines against pandemic influenza." The 17 June 2004 issue of Eurosurveillance Weekly had an article by J. M. Wood and J. S Robertson titled "Development of a vaccine for humans against highly pathogenic avian influenza virus."

Surveillance systems. Information about the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network is provided by WHO CSR. The September 2003 issue of Avian Diseases had an article by K. Stöhr titled "The WHO global influenza program and its animal influenza network." The European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS) Web site provides an introduction to EISS, as well as news, publications, and links on pandemic planning. The CDC provides information about influenza reports and surveillance methods in the United States.

Breakthroughs in vaccine development. NIAID's Focus on the Flu offers a presentation titled "Reverse genetics: Building flu vaccines piece by piece" as well as an illustrated introduction to reassortment vs. reverse genetics. The Agricultural Research Service offers a presentation on using reverse genetics titled "Reverse process may be key to developing swine flu vaccine." The Scientist makes available a 9 April 2003 article by T. M. Powledge titled "Quick custom flu vaccines" and a 29 January 2004 article by R. Walgate titled "H5N1 vaccine strain in a week: Using reverse genetics, WHO thinks a prototype bird flu strain likely to be ready in a week." WHO CSR provides a 20 January 2004 update titled "Development of a vaccine effective against avian influenza H5N1 infection in humans." The St. Jude Children's Research Hospital offers an 2 April 2003 press release titled "Special reversed genetics used for vaccine against H5N1." Scientific American makes available a 23 February 2004 article by K. Hopkin titled "Egg beaters: Flu vaccine makers look beyond the chicken egg." The September 2003 issue of Avian Diseases had an article by G. Neumann, M. Hatta, and Y. Kawaoka titled "Reverse genetics for the control of avian influenza."

Recent WHO meeting on influenza pandemic vaccine development. "Vaccines for pandemic influenza" is the summary report (PDF format) (3) of the November 2004 meeting on influenza pandemic vaccines with participants from WHO, influenza vaccine manufacturers, national licensing agencies, and governmental agencies. CIDRAP makes available a news article about the meeting.

U.S. support for H5N1 vaccine development. NIAID's Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases makes available the presentations (PDF format) from the September 2003 meeting titled "Development of a clinical trial plan for pandemic influenza vaccines"; a meeting summary is provided. NIAID issued a 27 May 2004 press release titled "NIAID announces contracts to develop vaccine against H5N1 avian influenza." Press releases about these agreements were issued by Chiron and Aventis. CIDRAP offers a 17 November 2004 news article by R. Roos titled "Clinical trials of human H5N1 flu vaccine to start soon." The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services issued a 21 September 2004 news release titled "HHS orders avian flu vaccine doses as preventive measure."

Vaccine production. WHO CSR provides a list of influenza vaccine manufacturers. An Influenza Vaccine Production Fact Sheet is provided by the Center for Biosecurity, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. The 15 June 2003 issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases had an article by D. S. Fedson titled "Pandemic influenza and global vaccine supply." The European Commission's November 2003 workshop on human pandemic influenza vaccine included a presentation by F. Senatore titled "Vaccine industry's capacity to respond." Aventis provides an introduction to pandemic influenza preparedness. The Sabin Vaccine Institute issued a 28 October 2004 press release (PDF format) titled "Global health experts strategize vaccine plan for pandemic influenza outbreaks."

Klaus Stöhr and Marja Esveld are in the World Health Organization Influenza Programme