據(jù)澳大利亞《每日電訊報(bào)》6月1日?qǐng)?bào)道，總部位于法國(guó)里昂的國(guó)際癌癥研究機(jī)構(gòu)(IARC)近日稱,，受人口增加和生活方式因素影響,，到2030年，全球癌癥病例可能增加75%,。
國(guó)際癌癥研究機(jī)構(gòu)的弗雷迪·布雷(Freddie Bray)說(shuō),，2008年有1270萬(wàn)人患癌，到2030年將有2220萬(wàn)人患癌,，其中90%發(fā)生在最貧困國(guó)家,。布雷稱，許多國(guó)家因感染導(dǎo)致的癌癥病例在減少,，但與西方飲食習(xí)慣有關(guān)的癌癥病例卻在增加,。相關(guān)研究成果刊登在了國(guó)際著名雜志The Lancet Oncology上。
2008年,，富裕國(guó)家癌癥病例中有一半是乳腺癌,、肺癌、腸癌以及前列腺癌,。而在中等收入國(guó)家,，食道癌、肝癌以及胃癌相對(duì)更常見(jiàn),。但在這兩類國(guó)家中,，宮頸癌與胃癌病例都在減少,。在貧困國(guó)家中，宮頸癌病例更多,，遠(yuǎn)超乳腺癌和肝癌患癌病例,。研究稱：“通過(guò)早期預(yù)防、接種疫苗,、早期診斷以及有效治療,，當(dāng)可減少癌癥病例。”（生物谷Bioon.com）
doi:10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70211-5
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PMID:
Global cancer transitions according to the Human Development Index (2008—2030): a population-based study
Dr Freddie Bray PhD a , Ahmedin Jemal PhD b, Nathan Grey PhD b, Jacques Ferlay ME a, David Forman PhD a
Background Cancer is set to become a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the coming decades in every region of the world. We aimed to assess the changing patterns of cancer according to varying levels of human development. Methods We used four levels (low, medium, high, and very high) of the Human Development Index (HDI), a composite indicator of life expectancy, education, and gross domestic product per head, to highlight cancer-specific patterns in 2008 (on the basis of GLOBOCAN estimates) and trends 1988—2002 (on the basis of the series in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents), and to produce future burden scenario for 2030 according to projected demographic changes alone and trends-based changes for selected cancer sites. Findings In the highest HDI regions in 2008, cancers of the female breast, lung, colorectum, and prostate accounted for half the overall cancer burden, whereas in medium HDI regions, cancers of the oesophagus, stomach, and liver were also common, and together these seven cancers comprised 62% of the total cancer burden in medium to very high HDI areas. In low HDI regions, cervical cancer was more common than both breast cancer and liver cancer. Nine different cancers were the most commonly diagnosed in men across 184 countries, with cancers of the prostate, lung, and liver being the most common. Breast and cervical cancers were the most common in women. In medium HDI and high HDI settings, decreases in cervical and stomach cancer incidence seem to be offset by increases in the incidence of cancers of the female breast, prostate, and colorectum. If the cancer-specific and sex-specific trends estimated in this study continue, we predict an increase in the incidence of all-cancer cases from 12·7 million new cases in 2008 to 22·2 million by 2030. Interpretation Our findings suggest that rapid societal and economic transition in many countries means that any reductions in infection-related cancers are offset by an increasing number of new cases that are more associated with reproductive, dietary, and hormonal factors. Targeted interventions can lead to a decrease in the projected increases in cancer burden through effective primary prevention strategies, alongside the implementation of vaccination, early detection, and effective treatment programmes. Funding None.
