近日,，中國科學院動物研究所的張知彬研究員與挪威奧斯陸大學Nils Stenseth等的一項合作研究表明：溫度對東亞飛蝗暴發(fā)的生態(tài)學效應(yīng)可能具有一定的周期或頻率依賴性(Stige et al., 2007, PNAS),。該項合作研究對馬世駿等(1958)發(fā)表的中國千年蝗災(zāi)資料進行了自回歸和頻譜分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)蝗災(zāi)發(fā)生程度與溫度呈顯著負相關(guān),，即蝗蟲在冷期的發(fā)生量要顯著地大于暖期，與過去的結(jié)論剛好相反,。以前對近50年蝗災(zāi)數(shù)據(jù)的研究表明夏蝗發(fā)生程度與1月溫度呈顯著正相關(guān)(馬世駿等,，1965)。由于中國的歷史氣候總體上是冷干暖濕,，因此可能的解釋是：中國冷期干旱頻次增加可使蝗災(zāi)的發(fā)生比暖期更為嚴重,。旱澇，尤其是干旱,，已被確認為東亞飛蝗大發(fā)生的關(guān)鍵因素(馬世駿等,，1958)。該發(fā)現(xiàn)的主要意義在于提示氣候因子可能同時具有功效相反的高頻(短周期)和低頻(長周期)生態(tài)效應(yīng),，需要在氣候變化生態(tài)學研究中應(yīng)當給予重視,。繼1999年陸續(xù)報道我國東亞飛蝗(Zhang and Li 1999, Ecological Research)、布氏田鼠(Zhang et al., 2003,Oikos)等大發(fā)生與厄爾尼諾-南方濤動現(xiàn)象有關(guān)之后,，該項研究成果再次提示：大尺度氣候變化可能對我國生物災(zāi)害的發(fā)生具有重要影響,。
該項研究結(jié)果說明大尺度全球氣候變暖對蝗災(zāi)的發(fā)生可能是不利的。但是由于人類增加溫室氣體排放所產(chǎn)生的氣候變暖是否還遵循這一規(guī)律尚不清楚,。氣候變暖可能存在兩種作用。一種是在短時間尺度上溫度的直接作用,，即氣候變暖可能比較有利于蝗蟲發(fā)生,。另一種是大時間尺度上溫度的間接作用，即氣候變暖可能通過對旱澇的影響而發(fā)揮作用,。但在當前氣候變暖的情況下,，我國東亞飛蝗主要分布區(qū)沒有呈現(xiàn)出變濕的趨勢；相反,，在黃河,、淮河、海河流域呈現(xiàn)了持續(xù)干旱的現(xiàn)象,，這可能是近年來氣候變暖背景下我國蝗災(zāi)沒有減輕,，反而有所加重的原因之一，但這種趨勢最終如何發(fā)展,，還要綜合考察溫度關(guān)聯(lián)下未來水文條件的演變對我國蝗災(zāi)的影響,。（動物研究所）
原始出處:
Published online before print September 18, 2007
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 10.1073/pnas.0706813104
Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics
( agricultural pest | ecological response | frequency dependence | global warming | Locusta migratoria manilensis )
Leif Christian Stige *, Kung-Sik Chan , Zhibin Zhang , David Frank ¶, and Nils C. Stenseth *
*Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway; Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, 263 Schaeffer Hall, Iowa City, IA 52242; State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tatun Road, Chao Yang District, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China; and ¶Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research, Zuercherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Communicated by Hans R. Herren, Millennium Institute, Arlington, VA, July 20, 2007 (received for review March 16, 2007)
For >1,000 years, Chinese officials have recorded the annual abundance of the oriental migratory locust Locusta migratoria manilensis, with the ultimate aim of predicting locust outbreaks. Linking these records with temperature and precipitation reconstructions for the period 957-1956, we show that decadal mean locust abundance is highest during cold and wet periods. These periods coincide with above-average frequencies of both floods and droughts in the lower Yangtze River, phenomena that are associated with locust outbreaks. Our results imply differential ecological responses to interdecadal and interannual climatic variability. Such frequency-dependent effects deserve increased attention in global warming studies.
Author contributions: L.C.S. and N.C.S. designed research; L.C.S., K.-S.C., Z.Z., and D.F. performed research; L.C.S. and K.-S.C. analyzed data; and L.C.S., K.-S.C., Z.Z., D.F., and N.C.S. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
To whom correspondence may be addressed.
Zhibin Zhang, E-mail: [email protected]
Nils C. Stenseth, E-mail: [email protected]
