挪威旅鼠以其種群周期而知名，這種周期在其高峰時(shí)被認(rèn)為會(huì)影響生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的其他構(gòu)成部分。事實(shí)上，物理環(huán)境（氣候也包括在內(nèi)）在決定嚙齒類周期動(dòng)態(tài)中所起作用,，在很大程度上仍然是一種猜測。
現(xiàn)在,，通過將關(guān)于嚙齒類密度,、鳥類密度和對積雪狀態(tài)的野外估計(jì)等的長期（1970-2007年）觀測數(shù)據(jù)與氣象數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合起來所做的一項(xiàng)研究，研究人員獲得了關(guān)于旅鼠周期的一幅更為清晰的畫面,。從該畫面可以看出,，旅鼠的周期存在一個(gè)顯著的變化，從人們所熟悉的3-5年的嚙齒類周期變?yōu)橐环N非周期性的,、基本上為低幅度的狀態(tài),，這種現(xiàn)象可由冬季氣候的年際變化來解釋和預(yù)測。關(guān)于氣候?qū)X類動(dòng)態(tài)的影響被傳遞到生態(tài)系統(tǒng)其他部分的假設(shè),，有非?？尚诺淖C據(jù)。（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推薦原始出處：
Nature 456, 93-97 (6 November 2008) | doi:10.1038/nature07442
Linking climate change to lemming cycles
Kyrre L. Kausrud1, Atle Mysterud1, Harald Steen2,7, Jon Olav Vik1, Eivind ?stbye2, Bernard Cazelles3,4, Erik Framstad5, Anne Maria Eikeset1, Ivar Mysterud2, Torstein Solh?y6 & Nils Chr. Stenseth1
1 Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,
2 Department of Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
3 CNRS UMR 7625, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 46 rue d'Ulm, 75230 Paris, France
4 IRD GEODES, 32 Avenue Henri Varagnat, 93142 Bondy cedex, France
5 Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Gaustadalleen 21, N-0349 Oslo, Norway
6 Department of Biology, University of Bergen, Realfagbygget, Allegaten 41, N-5007 Bergen, Norway
7 Present address: Norwegian Polar Institute, N- 9296 Troms?, Norway.
The population cycles of rodents at northern latitudes have puzzled people for centuries1, 2, and their impact is manifest throughout the alpine ecosystem2, 3. Climate change is known to be able to drive animal population dynamics between stable and cyclic phases4, 5, and has been suggested to cause the recent changes in cyclic dynamics of rodents and their predators3, 6, 7, 8, 9. But although predator–rodent interactions are commonly argued to be the cause of the Fennoscandian rodent cycles1, 10, 11, 12, 13, the role of the environment in the modulation of such dynamics is often poorly understood in natural systems8, 9, 14. Hence, quantitative links between climate-driven processes and rodent dynamics have so far been lacking. Here we show that winter weather and snow conditions, together with density dependence in the net population growth rate, account for the observed population dynamics of the rodent community dominated by lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) in an alpine Norwegian core habitat between 1970 and 1997, and predict the observed absence of rodent peak years after 1994. These local rodent dynamics are coherent with alpine bird dynamics both locally and over all of southern Norway, consistent with the influence of large-scale fluctuations in winter conditions. The relationship between commonly available meteorological data and snow conditions indicates that changes in temperature and humidity, and thus conditions in the subnivean space, seem to markedly affect the dynamics of alpine rodents and their linked groups. The pattern of less regular rodent peaks, and corresponding changes in the overall dynamics of the alpine ecosystem, thus seems likely to prevail over a growing area under projected climate change.
