據(jù)2月6日的《科學(xué)》雜志報(bào)道說(shuō),，研究人員已經(jīng)通過(guò)應(yīng)用氣候的歷史紀(jì)錄來(lái)模擬進(jìn)化過(guò)程并研發(fā)出了一種預(yù)報(bào)生物多樣性熱區(qū)的方法。這種方法能夠?yàn)槿藗兲峁┵Y訊并對(duì)未來(lái)的自然資源保護(hù)管理措施有所助益,。
Ana Carnaval及其同僚將這種預(yù)測(cè)方法應(yīng)用于巴西的大西洋雨林,，它是地球上最具生物多樣性的地區(qū)。他們用的是在所有雨林中都很常見(jiàn)的3種樹(shù)蛙的mtDNA（即線粒體DNA）序列,，他們應(yīng)用了系統(tǒng)發(fā)生和回溯分析來(lái)發(fā)現(xiàn)諸如它們的遺傳多樣性,、距離隔離、地區(qū)內(nèi)和地區(qū)間的分化等情況,。這時(shí),，一幅該種蛙類的進(jìn)化史的圖片就開(kāi)始浮現(xiàn)出來(lái)。
研究人員觀察到,，該雨林某些地區(qū)在整個(gè)冰川期的消長(zhǎng)過(guò)程中仍然保持穩(wěn)定的生物多樣性,，而其它有些地區(qū)僅僅是在近至晚更新世時(shí)才被植入生物物種的。他們得出結(jié)論：大多數(shù)的保護(hù)措施聚焦于該雨林的南部地區(qū),，但其中部地區(qū)卻一直是生物的庇護(hù)所,，而且它比自然資源保護(hù)學(xué)家所意識(shí)到的生物多樣性要多得多。而且,，由于巴西大西洋雨林的中部地區(qū)與南部地區(qū)相比經(jīng)歷了更高速率的森林采伐,，因此研究人員警告說(shuō)，許多獨(dú)特的生物多元性可能會(huì)在那里喪失,，而正在發(fā)生的生物棲息地的破壞會(huì)迅速消抹掉這一預(yù)測(cè)方法所需要的生物學(xué)特征標(biāo)志,，從而進(jìn)一步阻礙未來(lái)保護(hù)措施的實(shí)施。多年以來(lái),，巴西大西洋雨林已經(jīng)縮小至不到其原先地理分布的8%,。（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推薦原始出處：
Science 6 February 2009:DOI: 10.1126/science.1166955
Stability Predicts Genetic Diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Hotspot
Ana Carolina Carnaval,1* Michael J. Hickerson,2 Célio F. B. Haddad,3 Miguel T. Rodrigues,4 Craig Moritz1
Biodiversity hotspots, representing regions with high species endemism and conservation threat, have been mapped globally. Yet, biodiversity distribution data from within hotspots are too sparse for effective conservation in the face of rapid environmental change. Using frogs as indicators, ecological niche models under paleoclimates, and simultaneous Bayesian analyses of multispecies molecular data, we compare alternative hypotheses of assemblage-scale response to late Quaternary climate change. This reveals a hotspot within the Brazilian Atlantic forest hotspot. We show that the southern Atlantic forest was climatically unstable relative to the central region, which served as a large climatic refugium for neotropical species in the late Pleistocene. This sets new priorities for conservation in Brazil and establishes a validated approach to biodiversity prediction in other understudied, species-rich regions.
1 Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720–3160, USA.
2 Biology Department, Queens College, City University of New York, Flushing, NY 11367, USA.
3 Departamento de Zoologia, Instituto de Biociências, UNESP, Rio Claro, SP 3526-4100, Brazil.
4 Departamento de Zoologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de S?o Paulo, SP 055008-090, Brazil.
