2003年火災(zāi)季期間在巴西圣塔倫帕拉州發(fā)生的砍伐森林火災(zāi),。（攝影：Doug Morton)
研究人員報(bào)告說(shuō),，太平洋和大西洋的海水表面溫度可被用于預(yù)測(cè)南美洲火災(zāi)季節(jié)的嚴(yán)重性，這一預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)間可至多提前3到5個(gè)月,。
這一提前時(shí)間對(duì)在世界上的一個(gè)火災(zāi)與伐毀森林及全世界碳排放有重大關(guān)系的地區(qū)調(diào)集消防隊(duì)及計(jì)劃有針對(duì)性的燃燒等對(duì)策是有用的,。
Yang Chen及其同事從過(guò)去的研究中得到提示，這些研究顯示,，在過(guò)去30年觀察到的最嚴(yán)重的干旱是在東太平洋和北大西洋熱帶海面溫度不同尋常地溫暖的時(shí)候發(fā)生的,。
研究人員根據(jù)在南美地區(qū)火災(zāi)活動(dòng)的衛(wèi)星估算及與太平洋中的厄爾尼諾-南方震蕩和大西洋中的大西洋多年代振蕩有關(guān)的海面溫度異常設(shè)計(jì)了一個(gè)數(shù)學(xué)模型。
該模型可以提前3-5個(gè)月預(yù)測(cè)地區(qū)性年度火災(zāi)季節(jié)的嚴(yán)重性,，提示它也許可作為一個(gè)劇烈的火災(zāi)季節(jié)的早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng),。(生物谷 Bioon.com)
doi:10.1126/science.1209472
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Forecasting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Yang Chen, James T. Randerson, Douglas C. Morton, Ruth S. DeFries, G. James Collatz, Prasad S. Kasibhatla, Louis Giglio, Yufang Jin, Miriam E. Marlier
Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. We investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in fire activity in South America and sea surface temperatures. We found that the Oceanic Niño Index was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model to forecast regional fire season severity with lead times of 3 to 5 months. Our approach may contribute to the development of an early warning system for anticipating the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for climate and air quality.
