近日，國(guó)際著名雜志SSCI期刊Applied Geography刊登了中科院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所劉彥隨研究員的研究成果“Climate warming and land use change in Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China,。”,；學(xué)術(shù)界日漸認(rèn)同氣候變暖并導(dǎo)致農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的適宜范圍擴(kuò)大的觀點(diǎn)。但氣候變化與農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)布局的耦合關(guān)系,，亟需得到區(qū)域響應(yīng)的模擬研究和檢驗(yàn),。
中科院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所劉彥隨研究員與國(guó)際合作者以我國(guó)黑龍江省為典型案例，利用近50年來土地利用和氣象觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),，模擬分析了氣候變暖與水稻田面積擴(kuò)展的關(guān)系,。
研究結(jié)果顯示：1）1960-2009年水稻田播種面積與氣溫升高具有同向性，大多數(shù)地區(qū)增溫超過2℃,，水稻田面積增加350多萬ha,；2）水稻田空間擴(kuò)張與氣溫空間分布變化基本一致，大多位于2-3℃等值線之間,；3）水稻田空間擴(kuò)張對(duì)氣溫變暖響應(yīng)表現(xiàn)出明顯的滯后性,。1970-1990年0℃等溫線北移達(dá)163km，其增溫影響的地域范圍最大,，而水稻田面積大幅增加主要集中在1993-2009年的16年間,，其增幅與過去30余年的差不多。研究結(jié)果表明,，水稻田面積大幅擴(kuò)展對(duì)氣候快速變暖的顯著響應(yīng),，大約推遲20年的時(shí)間。（生物谷Bioon.com）
doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.11.005
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Climate warming and land use change in Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China
Jay Gao, Yansui Liu
This study explores the relationship between climate warming and rice paddy expansion in Heilongjiang Province of China. It is found that paddy fields more than quadrupled from 3479 km2 in 1958 to 14 564 km2 in 1980, and increased further to 21,940 km2 in 2000. The newly gained paddy fields originated chiefly from dry fields (46.35%), swamps (30.22%), and primary forest (nearly 10%) during 1958–1980. During 1980–2000 paddy fields expanded at the expense of dry fields (70.50%), swamp (16.59%), and grassland (10.13%). Analysis of climate data shows a warming of over 2 °C from the 1960s to the 2000s in most places. All 28 meteorological stations except one experienced a warming trend. Spatially, the expansion of paddy fields coincided closely with the spatial distribution of annual temperature. These fields were located mostly between the isolines of 2–3 °C. Sowing area of grain increased at a modest rate during the 1970s and the 1980s when >0 °C area expanded rapidly. However, sowing area of rice rose in the 1990s and 2000s at a rate twice higher than that for sowing area of grain in the preceding decades. Thus, the expansion of paddy fields at the expense of other land covers was made possible owing to climate warming in the preceding decade. On average, it takes about 20 years for agricultural practices to adapt to the warmer climate.
