傳染病已與偷獵及棲息地喪失結(jié)合而成為非洲類人猿存活的主要威脅，因?yàn)樗麄円呀?jīng)成為更小群體的限制,。盡管專業(yè)自然資源保護(hù)學(xué)家努力從生態(tài)滅絕中挽救我們最密切生態(tài)親戚的工作大部分是失敗的,，新科學(xué)方法是分析主要威脅和發(fā)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新解決方案所必需的,。
在這個(gè)危機(jī)的反應(yīng)中,，加州大學(xué)圣塔巴巴拉國(guó)家生態(tài)學(xué)分析與綜合中心(NCEAS)的研究人員已經(jīng)開展了一項(xiàng)開創(chuàng)性研究,，此研究闡明了危重疾病如何威脅野生大猩猩與黑猩猩的長(zhǎng)期生存。該研究也探查了可能有助于確保它們持續(xù)存在的潛在治療干預(yù)措施,。
文章"Consequences of Non-Intervention for Infectious Disease in African Great Apes"最近發(fā)表在在線期刊 PLoS ONE上。此項(xiàng)研究提示,，與那些關(guān)于疾病在野生種群中蔓延的最近報(bào)道可比較的死亡率是不能忍受的,。
通訊作用Sadie Ryan是紐約錫拉丘茲SUNY-ESF的生態(tài)學(xué)副教授，Walsh是鞏固劍橋大學(xué)定量生態(tài)學(xué)家,。
據(jù)研究,，模構(gòu)表明當(dāng)前人口水平的恢復(fù)時(shí)間將從流感樣5年爆發(fā)到殺死96%人口的埃博拉病毒131年爆發(fā)變化，其中當(dāng)前人口水平源自單一疾病爆發(fā)并低于非常樂觀的恢復(fù)率,。種群彈性是測(cè)評(píng)疾病威脅的中心,，因?yàn)榇笮尚膳c黑猩猩比包括人類在內(nèi)的地球上任何其他動(dòng)物的繁殖要慢得多。
"這些疾病死亡率特別令人不安,，由于越來越多的人為了旅游而接觸野生猿猴與它們相關(guān)的習(xí)性,、偷獵和保護(hù)區(qū)種群壓力的增加而正上升的病原體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)"， Ryan說,，"這些小種群類人猿是我們最近親緣的最后殘跡,，所以，當(dāng)談到干預(yù)問題時(shí)就有一個(gè)巨大的情緒反應(yīng),。我們應(yīng)該等或是我們能等,，或者我們應(yīng)該通過提前接種使用預(yù)見式干預(yù)嗎？"
研究人員提醒到,，如埃博拉病毒和猴免疫缺陷病毒（SIV）樣的自然出現(xiàn)病原體,，與諸如常見的感冒和流感病毒一樣的傳播自人類的呼吸道病原體已被確認(rèn)為野生大猩猩和黑猩猩死亡率的重要來源,，病原體從人類到類人猿的傳播率已是眾所周知地增長(zhǎng)。雖然威脅的認(rèn)識(shí)已經(jīng)蔓延到整個(gè)科學(xué)界,，如接種疫苗和治療樣的干預(yù)仍然是有爭(zhēng)議的,。
由于缺乏哪一種病原體感染類人猿和什么樣感染率的準(zhǔn)確診斷數(shù)據(jù)，Ryan和Walsh發(fā)現(xiàn)很難嚴(yán)格量化增加的旅游如何轉(zhuǎn)化為猿群增加的疾病壓力,。因此,，他們以可能與野生猿相關(guān)的人類接種率觀點(diǎn)和對(duì)抗?jié)撛诘耐{性疾病的可能疫苗的方式評(píng)定并比較了潛在的未來疾病蔓延的危險(xiǎn)與不干預(yù)反應(yīng)，包括限制游客接近靈長(zhǎng)類,、社區(qū)健康計(jì)劃,、提高警覺和反應(yīng)性獸醫(yī)干預(yù)。
根據(jù)他們的發(fā)現(xiàn),，Ryan和Walsh建議,，類人猿保護(hù)區(qū)"追求和促進(jìn)治療和疫苗作為抗?fàn)幏侵揞惾嗽诚陆档奈淦鲙?kù)"。他們推薦,，實(shí)地研究使用治療方法與口服用 疫苗的安全和有效方法,，一同評(píng)估所有類人猿保護(hù)策略的成本-效益。
"我們觀察了在東道主國(guó)家與潛在旅游者上的人口接種率,，并觀察可應(yīng)用于類人猿的開發(fā)中的潛在疫苗",， Ryan說，"但是,，我們?cè)谝咝猿霈F(xiàn)時(shí)通過動(dòng)員整個(gè)研究界更好地了解正在發(fā)生的事情而需要做更多的研究,。"（生物谷bioon.com）
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0029030
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Consequences of Non-Intervention for Infectious Disease in African Great Apes
Sadie J. Ryan, Peter D. Walsh
Abstract Infectious disease has recently joined poaching and habitat loss as a major threat to African apes. Both "naturally" occurring pathogens, such as Ebola and Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV), and respiratory pathogens transmitted from humans, have been confirmed as important sources of mortality in wild gorillas and chimpanzees. While awareness of the threat has increased, interventions such as vaccination and treatment remain controversial. Here we explore both the risk of disease to African apes, and the status of potential responses. Through synthesis of published data, we summarize prior disease impact on African apes. We then use a simple demographic model to illustrate the resilience of a well-known gorilla population to disease, modeled on prior documented outbreaks. We found that the predicted recovery time for this specific gorilla population from a single outbreak ranged from 5 years for a low mortality (4%) respiratory outbreak, to 131 years for an Ebola outbreak that killed 96% of the population. This shows that mortality rates comparable to those recently reported for disease outbreaks in wild populations are not sustainable. This is particularly troubling given the rising pathogen risk created by increasing habituation of wild apes for tourism, and the growth of human populations surrounding protected areas. We assess potential future disease spillover risk in terms of vaccination rates amongst humans that may come into contact with wild apes, and the availability of vaccines against potentially threatening diseases. We discuss and evaluate non-interventionist responses such as limiting tourist access to apes, community health programs, and safety, logistic, and cost issues that constrain the potential of vaccination.
