一個(gè)國(guó)際研究小組在最新出版的美國(guó)《國(guó)家科學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào)》上報(bào)告說(shuō)，溫室氣體可導(dǎo)致海平面在未來(lái)數(shù)個(gè)世紀(jì)持續(xù)上升,，全球平均氣溫每升高1攝氏度,，海平面可能上升超過(guò)2米,。
德國(guó)波茨坦氣候影響研究所等機(jī)構(gòu)的研究人員基于早期氣候數(shù)據(jù)和計(jì)算機(jī)模型得出結(jié)論，在20世紀(jì),，海平面上升大約0．2米,，預(yù)計(jì)到本世紀(jì)末將上升不到兩米。不過(guò),，海平面的相對(duì)“緩慢”上升背后潛藏巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn),，其后全球平均氣溫每升高1攝氏度，海平面上升可能超過(guò)2米,。
研究顯示,，現(xiàn)階段,，海水熱膨脹和高山冰川融化是海平面變化的主要因素，但隨著時(shí)間推移,，格陵蘭島冰原以及南極冰蓋融化將成為未來(lái)海平面上升的主要“貢獻(xiàn)者”,。
研究人員認(rèn)為，目前地球海平面還沒(méi)有明顯升高,，這主要是由于冰原的面積和體積太大,，融化速度緩慢,。而一旦持續(xù)升高的氣溫打破了目前的這種相對(duì)平衡,，冰原融化速度就會(huì)加快，海平面的上升也將會(huì)加速,。
波茨坦氣候影響研究所的安德斯·萊韋爾曼說(shuō),，人們應(yīng)及早采取應(yīng)對(duì)海平面上升的措施。（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推薦的英文摘要
PNAS doi：10.1073/pnas.1309353110
Improved El Niño forecasting by cooperativity detection
Josef Ludescher, Avi Gozolchiani, Mikhail I. Bogachev, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuberd
Although anomalous episodic warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific, dubbed El Niño by Peruvian fishermen, has major (and occasionally devastating) impacts around the globe, robust forecasting is still limited to about 6 mo ahead. A significant extension of the prewarning time would be instrumental for avoiding some of the worst damages such as harvest failures in developing countries. Here we introduce a unique avenue toward El Niño prediction based on network methods, inspecting emerging teleconnections. Our approach starts from the evidence that a large-scale cooperative mode—linking the El Niño basin (equatorial Pacific corridor) and the rest of the ocean—builds up in the calendar year before the warming event. On this basis, we can develop an efficient 12-mo forecasting scheme, i.e., achieve some doubling of the early-warning period. Our method is based on high-quality observational data available since 1950 and yields hit rates above 0.5, whereas false-alarm rates are below 0.1.
