中科院大氣物理研究所大氣科學(xué)和地球流體力學(xué)數(shù)值模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)室劉驥平和宋米榮在《美國(guó)科學(xué)院院刊》（PNAS）發(fā)表了《減小氣候模式預(yù)測(cè)北極九月無海冰出現(xiàn)時(shí)間的不確定性》文章，并被Nature作為研究亮點(diǎn)進(jìn)行報(bào)道。
這項(xiàng)研究對(duì)最新獲得的30個(gè)CMIP5氣候和地球系統(tǒng)模式的模擬預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)行了分析,，采用了2種不同的方法來減小預(yù)測(cè)北極九月未來出現(xiàn)無海冰狀況時(shí)間的不確定性。一種方法是從30個(gè)模式中選擇能最好地模擬1979年以來觀測(cè)的北極海冰氣候平均態(tài)和變化趨勢(shì),。另一種方法是利用現(xiàn)在和未來模擬的北極海冰狀態(tài)密切和持續(xù)的統(tǒng)計(jì)關(guān)系以及最近幾年北極海冰的變化來約束模式海冰模擬的誤差。這2種不同的方法給出了相似的北極出現(xiàn)無海冰的時(shí)間。
其結(jié)果是： 在高排放情景下（RCP8.5），北極9月出現(xiàn)無海冰的時(shí)間為2054到2058年之間,。與之前眾多模式的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果從2011到2098年相比，這項(xiàng)研究將北極無海冰時(shí)間大大地收窄到本世紀(jì)50年代中期,。（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推薦的英文摘要
Nature doi:10.1038/499383c
Ice-free Arctic predicted
High levels of greenhouse-gas emissions could drive the annual sea-ice minimum in the Arctic,， which occurs in September,， to a level defined as ice-free by around mid-century.
A team led by Jiping Liu of the State University of New York in Albany assessed recent projections from 30 climate models on the basis of how well they represent current sea-ice levels. The researchers also looked at the projections of those models that best represented the evolution of sea ice from 1979–2011. Both analyses suggest that,， compared with 2012 levels， sea ice could decline by some 50% to around 1.7 million square kilometres by the 2060s if emissions are moderate. A high-emissions scenario could push the annual minimum to less than 1 million square kilometres — the ice-free level — in the 2050s.
